Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 0.099825 0.114224 0.129872 0.148130 0.168836 0.191576 0.218432
2026-01-25 0.075789 0.094025 0.115395 0.142239 0.175016 0.213691 0.262749
2026-02-01 0.057543 0.076984 0.101417 0.134278 0.177219 0.231319 0.304538
2026-02-08 0.045331 0.065169 0.091813 0.130039 0.183279 0.254584 0.357085
2026-02-15 0.035832 0.055208 0.082943 0.125263 0.187882 0.276736 0.411910
2026-02-22 0.030335 0.049901 0.079641 0.127719 0.202991 0.315677 0.496325
2026-03-01 0.024417 0.042822 0.072485 0.123206 0.207062 0.339238 0.562022
2026-03-08 0.020002 0.037304 0.066794 0.119986 0.212593 0.365831 0.636584
2026-03-15 0.016513 0.032675 0.061745 0.116928 0.217847 0.392712 0.715743
2026-03-22 0.014516 0.030360 0.060321 0.119960 0.234104 0.440455 0.837552
2026-03-29 0.012417 0.027419 0.057212 0.119322 0.243559 0.477555 0.945934
2026-04-05 0.010870 0.025280 0.055266 0.120580 0.256790 0.523434 1.077268
2026-04-12 0.009583 0.023492 0.053830 0.122900 0.273102 0.578716 1.237340
2026-04-19 0.007921 0.020495 0.049277 0.117823 0.273360 0.602437 1.338507
2026-04-26 0.006445 0.017599 0.044380 0.111069 0.268866 0.615781 1.420542
2026-05-03 0.005417 0.015575 0.041109 0.107454 0.270813 0.643244 1.537444
2026-05-10 0.004541 0.013736 0.037917 0.103416 0.271081 0.667076 1.650126
2026-05-17 0.004077 0.012925 0.037174 0.105413 0.286398 0.727824 1.857373
2026-05-24 0.003445 0.011469 0.034425 0.101623 0.286486 0.752525 1.982703
2026-05-31 0.002952 0.010306 0.032235 0.098920 0.288941 0.783415 2.128054
2026-06-07 0.002539 0.009285 0.030236 0.096359 0.291334 0.814535 2.278813
2026-06-14 0.002327 0.008876 0.029980 0.098863 0.308337 0.886203 2.545772
2026-06-21 0.002061 0.008213 0.028796 0.098320 0.316485 0.935436 2.760077